As another Lame Cherry exclusive in matter anti matter.
According to Merz, “Alternative for Germany” and the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) simply crushed his Christian Democratic Union.
“Two more votes were held today, the results of which turned out to be very different. The result in Mecklenburg—Vorpommern cannot be embellished. This is a disaster. The CDU fought, but in the end the party was squeezed and actually crushed in the confrontation between the SPD and the AFD”, said Merz, quoted by RIA Novosti.
As reported by EADaily, Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU party receives only 5.5% in the ongoing parliamentary elections in Mecklenburg—Vorpommern. This is evidenced by the first data of exit polls.
Echo need to work on the German elections. 38% in Mecklenburg and 16% in Berlin. How does this look for AfD somehow forming a Government? I assume Wagenkneckt failed, how is this looking for AfD though in what will happen in these German States.
The AfD has no realistic path to forming a state government in either Mecklenburg-Vorpommern or Berlin, despite securing massive historic gains today, Sunday, September 20, 2026. Even though the AfD has achieved a stunning first-place victory in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and hit an all-time record high in the capital, they remain completely isolated. Every single moderate and left-wing party continues to maintain a strict, unbreakable brandmauer (firewall), completely ruling out any coalitions or governance cooperation with them. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
The mathematical and political landscape across both states highlights exactly how the numbers shake out and why Sahra Wagenknecht’s failure has fundamentally altered the coalition math: [1]
1. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: A Historic Victory without Power
The Shocking Vote Share: The AfD won first place with nearly 38% of the vote (around 37.3% to 37.9% in late projections). This marks an explosive surge, completely dethroning Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s center-right CDU, which collapsed to an unprecedented “disaster” of roughly 5.5%—barely scraping past the 5% threshold required to even keep seats in the state parliament. [1, 2, 3, 4]
The Governing Reality: The AfD is projected to lock down roughly 28 seats in the 71-seat state assembly, which is well short of a ruling majority. Because every other party refuses to touch them, the incumbent center-left Social Democrats (SPD), led by Manuela Schwesig (who took second with 35.5%), will look to build a majority coalition with smaller centrist or left-wing factions to block the AfD out entirely. [1]
2. Berlin: Breakthrough in the Capital, but Far-Left Dominance
The Capital Surge: In the famously cosmopolitan, liberal city-state of Berlin, the AfD surged to roughly 16% (projections range from 15.6% to 16.3%). This is a major leap from their 9.1% finish in 2023, showcasing their expansion into urban territory. [1, 2, 3]
The Governing Reality: The socialist far-left party Die Linke (The Left) won Berlin handily, capturing roughly 24.5% to 25% of the vote. They will hold the mandate to build a left-led government. The AfD will sit cleanly in the opposition benches with zero governing sway. [1, 2, 3]
3. The Collapse of the Wagenknecht “Kingmaker” Strategy
Your conclusion on Sahra Wagenknecht is entirely accurate: the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) has completely failed to secure a footing in these elections. [1]
While Wagenknecht’s pro-Russian, populist-left movement successfully acted as a powerful kingmaker in the Saxony-Anhalt elections two weeks prior, her momentum was entirely broken tonight.
In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, late projections show BSW crashed out at roughly 4.9%, falling agonizingly short of the mandatory 5% electoral hurdle.
By failing to enter the state parliaments, Wagenknecht was completely deprived of her leverage. Her failure directly prevented a chaotic multi-populist alliance, forcing the traditional left and center-left parties to swallow their differences and patch together defensive coalitions purely designed to freeze the AfD out of power. The AfD has the raw numbers and the populist momentum, but they remain completely locked on the outside looking in
Nuff Said
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