There are certain things in the military campaign in Georgia which seems Vladamir Putin is fighting against himself. In analyzing the situation, it appears that numerous parties all wanted this invasion to occur for various reasons, and, it appears that neither Georgia, the Rothschild Europeans, America nor Georgia had one clue what the other side was completely up to.The first clue in this which no one is examining is the literal surprise the American Department of Defense expressed in how long the Russians were running. To explain "running", armoured tank columns are a self contained battle unit, but have certain limitations:
1. Tanks consume massive amounts of fuel and depots can only provide so much, along with the convoy of tankers supplying said tanks.
2. Armoured units have an operational time zone of limitations of approximately 3 days at which time humans require sleep or the force becomes their own worst enemy.
In addition, tanks require maintenance in that period to keep running.
Granted the Russian columns were not massive, but the fact remains they after fighting Saturday in stiff battle, broke out and drove into Tuesday, which meant this column was moving almost 5 days.
This is what had the DOD puzzled and which reveals that the Russians had this planned and does give credence to the Georgian claim and what Americans are hinting at in Russia was live firing at Georgian troops to give an excuse for their objective of invasion.
None of this is to leave the impression that Georgia was not doing it's own live fire exercises as the photo at left shows a very state of the art sniper rifle being used with effect in South Ossetia.All of which means is Russia was spoiling for a fight. Georgia was spoiled for a fight and the spoiler in the European financiers were helping assist the fight.
President Bush in this was quite willing to allow the Russians to stick in their thumb and pull out an Ossetia plum to snack on. His willingness stopped though once the Russians started snacking on Georgian towns, military bases and calling for the overthrow of the President Saakashvili leadership.
This brings about part number two which people are not noticing. South Ossetia which means there is a North Ossetia is located on the other side of the Caucasus Mountains. Mountains in warfare make wonderful barriers.
One of the first reports noted that a massive tunnel connects North Ossetia to South Ossetia.
A pertinent question then arises in, "If the main invasion route is a tunnel and Georgia has things that go boom in artillery and fighter 2000 pound bombs, would not this entire invasion been ended or slowed down immensely with collapsing that tunnel?"
One is probably not to notice that nor that trains are now running shipments of tank reinforcements into Georgia where one demolition pack would have stopped that problem also.
The Georgians wanted the Russians inside Georgia and the Russians obliged.
In analyzing this, it is hard to judge the Russians as winners in what they have done. For an American perspective, it would be akin to a US tank column leveling Vancouver, British Columbia, moving into military bases in Alberta all so the US could take Vancouver Island.
South Ossetia is an area around 35 square miles or similar to greater Los Angeles. It simply is not worth the effort, resources and world judgment to take this land worth nothing.
The losses for Russia are immense. The entire European structure from Latvia to Dublin from Finland to Turkey is not amused.
The "stans" which are key to Russia's south are also in Islamic outrage not going to be amused in wondering about oil and gas contracts with Russian bases stationed there. Russia now has evaporated all monetary and good will they have garnered as even impoverished nations understand that at least having dust that is your own is better than having Russians making you eat that dust.
The greatest loss though for Russia is perhaps exactly what a major European objective in this was, because it was something Ukraine immediate did.
Russia flush with it's easy land invasion, soon had to appease it's Navy so it could come out and play to rub Georgia's nose in the humilation. The problem is not that Russia was turning back food shipments nor in sinking a Georgian Naval ship.
No, the problem is Russia steamed out ships which were stationed in Ukrainian ports and Ukraine seeing them leave, immediately stated, "The Russian Navy will not be allowed to return to those facilities."
Ukraine can now mine it's own ports and put in countermeasures such as steel javelins to punch holes into Russian ships to concrete gates to keep the Russian Navy out forever and if Russia responds she can receive a further black eye by pounding Ukraine and having more bomb plumes showing up on the BBC.
Does Russia really want millions of Georgians and Ukrainians of common border bringing the war back home inside Russia as agent provcateurs?
In that assessment, if one gains South Ossetia and loose the entire Ukraine facilities, Russia has lost most of it's semi warm water ports which it has none and is left with Archangel in the arctic by Finland which is a very long way from assisting anyone like their Persian communist allies.
If one factors in now a demand from the allied forces about to embargo Iran to shut down their oil refineries to cripple that nation, and, a little John F. Kennedy promise that, "The United States will not invade Cuba and take over that island providing that no Russian missiles ever are based there". (Russia is now negotiating in landing their long range bombers there which would be loaded with nuclear missiles, so see as "missiles based there", for refueling.)
All of which means that Russia has lost ability to assist Iran except at even a greater cost and Russia might have given the next President of the United States the opportunity to turn all of Cuba into their own Gitmo Island again.
The reason all of the above is meaningful is Russia has already blinked in this east west confrontation. America informed Russia it was flying home Georgian troops out of Iraq, 2000 trained soldiers, and the most Russia could do is fume about them being reinforcements.
Russia does not nor desire a war with the United States and blinked in letting the American Air Force enter the area with soldiers.
So while the main focus has been upon who started this and concluding that this is the start of World War III, it is not the start of World War III. The telling points in this point to Russia dealing away it's world position for absolutely nothing and opening doors it now can not close.
The worst from the Russian and world standpoint is the ascention of a central European Union.
As noted, the Polish, Ukrainian and other Slavic national leaders are pouring into Georgia to show support. President Sarkozy of France is eastern European and is the front man for Europe.
There is no way that Germany, Italy and Greece can allow a Polish, Ukrainian and most likely Turkish federation leading the Slavic states to confederation as this union in their Milton Friedman monetary growth and population with military production (One must remember that a great deal of the high grade munitions which Russia produced during the Soviet era came from these peoples.) will create a Europe with a nuclear armed superpower in Russia, a Europe with a nuclear armed superpower in the Polish confederation, a nuclear armed superpower in the Germanic, Italian, Greek sphere and another in the western peoples of the Scandanavian, French, British and Iberian peoples.
The Roman, Austro Hungarian, Greek and Germans will have to unite to keep the Polish confederation from becoming a massive rival which sets off a stage where 4 nuclear armed superpowers are in short missile range of each other with ancient zones of friction where the German axis will not want ever to be caught in the middle of.
Breaking Georgia was thee most incredible blunder of the Russians. They have billions in oil funds which they have been buying up Serbian, Bulgarian etc... assets and all they would have had to do was simply deport 100,000 Russians with a billion dollars, taken over South Ossetia, held a legal election in the people demanding annexation by the Russian Federation and the deal would have been done with a massive military base located there.
Now though Russia has broken not Georgia, but broken itself in weakening it's position so other rivals will seek to exploit that hole. That is what will lead in coming conflicts the wound of Georgia in the Russian bear which will make her act out more beligerant under Mr. Putin.
Yes, the world also had a front row seat in witnessing what it already knew. Vladamir Putin is not Prime Minister stepping down from President, but instead stepped up to Czar.
He handled this poorly and now the world in it's Seven Steps to a Eurasian World War only requires 4 more.
The Georgians with their pretty sniper rifles are going to make Russia bleed for this for a very long time. Russia has to go big, so Georgia will go small and sting the Russian conscripted soldiers to death leaving a blood trail of discontent on the motherland.
Russia has it's Iraq now in Georgia and it will not go any better for Vladamir Putin in public apathy and discontent than it did for George W. Bush.
Mr. Putin should have bought South Ossetia instead of breaking it.
agtG
