For a bit of background to set the stage, Russia is an arctic nation. She has always dreamed of a warm water port. This is one reason she jumped into Afghanistan to finally have that port and access to the great oceans.The only "port" Russia ever had which was operational in winter months was in the Ukraine at Sevestopol. This port though was absolutely worthless when one takes into account it is in the Black Sea and Turkey through the straits can lock up the entire Black Sea Fleet in a war.
This is based upon the 1936 Montreux Convention of which gave Turkey full rights concerning other nations warships and is why Russia has never really built "aircraft carriers" as the convention prohibits their passing through the straits, and, the one carrier Russia does have in the Admiral Kuznetsov, is termed instead a "cruiser".
What should be noted after Georgia occurred, that the Russians made certain the Admiral Kuznetsov, and a very full detachments of ships got out of the Black Sea before NATO suggested to member Turkey to landlock the entire Black Sea Fleet.
As an interesting historical note, the Admiral Kutnetsov, started life as the Tblisi, which just happens to be the capital of Georgia which Russia invaded.
Perhaps the gods of war have a sense of ironic humor too.
While not wanting to make this sound like the movie Red October, there is a Red August which has happened as the Black Sea Fleet has been flushed from port and it would be better for the world right now if they were all in Sevestopol, Ukraine.
The majority of the Russian nuclear fleet is based in the Arctic expanse where it's nuclear submarines with thousands of nuclear missiles prowl and can reach anywhere in the world.
The Black Sea Fleet though is different and interesting which it comprises in function and new additions of ships.
The Admiral K, is not a ship without problems in her past in mechanical function, but the Russians deemed her a large enough prize and possession to make certain she was sent out of the Black Sea.
Two coinciding events are of utmost importance in this.
1. The Black Sea Fleet is moving toward the Syrian port of Tartus.
Dictator Assad of Syria at the Black Sea resort of Sochi issued a public message telling Zbigniew Brzezinski of the global order exactly where Syria is in this. Assad praised Russia pounding Georgia and then invited Russia permanently into Syria. So much for another Brzezinski blunder as he was assuring all that Syria and Iran both can be made enemies of Russia and not America.
Tartus is vital to Russia and they are already preparing to expand the port as "their warm water port" in planning to leave Sevestopol in the Ukraine as the Ukrainians want them out early in their lease after what Russia did in Georgia.
This is but another sign that the Bolsheviks in Moscow have been contemplating action against the former states which were once under their control as they were negotiating with Syria months ago.
The Russian Front is in Georgia and the Caspian Basin, but Vladamir Putin has now made his own thrust in projecting that front out into Syria.
2. Tartus with the Black Sea Fleet while in the Mediterranean Sea is still in position to sit in the middle of the Suez Canal, flank Turkey to American ships and tie up any Israeli state attacks on Iran and Syria.
The American allied convoy now positioning to perhaps blockade Iran has an increased problem in a more readily avenue of support as the Black Sea Fleet is sitting in the NATO area of operation.
There was something "different" about this Black Sea relocation also as one has to understand how this body of ships works in consort.The Admiral K, does not operate like most aircraft carriers or as Americans operate their aircraft carriers in being the heart of the military attack.
The Russian order of battle has the Admiral K, instead as the chief operational security ship for the force.
The flagship of the entire fleet being assigned in this convoy and the surface fangs is the Moskva, which is a guide missile cruiser.
This means it is a quite large ship as warships run from battleship, cruiser, frigate, destroyer, frigate, corvette, minesweepers.
The Moskva, can run at 32 knots if necessary, has radars and all the offensive and defensive platforms to be quite offensive in his group.
Coupled with the Flanker aircraft which are a basic prototype of the now retiring F 14 Tomcat which Russia does not possess a great deal of for a lengthy war, this flotilla on the surface is quite menacing.
Thee only other aircraft of appreciable lethality are the Helix or Kamov or Ka -27 helicopter meant for hunting allied hunter attack submarines.
All of this in Russian protocols is to project what is under the surface. That is what is interesting in this movement as public statements show this battle group is traveling with 4 nuclear missile submarines.
The Black Sea Fleet patrol is only supposed to have 2 attack submarines, the Alrosa, and, the B-380 which are Kilo and Tango class subs.
As stated, the Northern Fleet is where the nuclear submarines always prowl. This time though 4 nuclear missile submarines are in this group in the Mediteranean which is what the surface ships are there protecting.
The Russians are laying those submarines in position and no one in public statements has seemed to notice some massive firepower has been moved into the Middle East theater of a definite nuclear sort.
At this point, it is necessary to review these submarines as many people know of the Typhoon class made infamous. The fact is the Typhoon class only had one operational submarine and it was meant for deep ocean work like the American Los Angeles class.
The Russians new Borey class are just coming into operation and their armament in the new Topol MERV's in the form of the Bulava which is the supposed stealth flying nuclear warhead are still in the testing phase.
This leaves the Delta IV class of submarines which are proven with their MERV's in this convoy. These are the latest additions in upgrades which the Russians were using at the end of the Cold War when they replaced their Yankee class with them.This entire flotilla is a problem not in that it could not be dealt with in a battle, but because it is going to be sitting on American allies, Egypt and Israel's port step with the ever glaring problem if it ever decided to go offensive it could not be stopped before vaporizing huge sections of the world.
The Black Sea Fleet is now Dictator Assad's gambit to keep the Israeli state from bombing him again. He has chosen along with Iran and it seems Jordan to be hiding under the Russian banner to carry out Bolsehvik proxy war against the west and the Israeli state.
This is the danger in this as Zbigniew Brzezinski will not forget being humilated like that in public by Dictator Assad.
Presently, the Israeli government is throwing off the Olmert regime in an attempt to elect Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu as leader. Mr. Netanyahu with his familiar background in the Israeli Defense Forces will agree with their assessment that Mr. Assad will be dealt with.
This Brzezinski faction with Likud will either have the Syrian dictator dead and replaced with someone who will tell the Russian Black Fleet to leave or this group will in a war cycle vaporize Damascus then, as Damascus currently with Russian nuclear missiles has turned this into a nuclear gambit.
Russia in being assessed as she is communist in action will not retaliate on any strikes on Syria in this manner as the Israeli state has several hundred nuclear warheads of it's own.
Even in a conventional strike Russia exposed at this Syrian port Russia would be the looser as the IDF could sink the entire Black Sea Fleet and has enough surface to air systems in place to make certain Russian conventional SS missiles or their Tupolev Tu 95 or Bear bombers would be raining down in pieces on Turkey or Syria in a short term exchange.That of course would be a disaster for Russia as all of Europe and China would awake considering if they were next recipients of a Russian attack as they all in the past generation which is still alive felt Russian bombs falling on them.
The Bolsheviks will not in turn go nuclear on the Israeli state as Putin will not loose Russia over a Jewish pile of rubble.
For all of the above reasons, the Black Sea Fleet of Red August is the story and not Georgia nor Barack Obama.
The world has changed in Russia has inserted itself into the Middle East theater with nuclear weapons and out of necessity the western forces and the Israeli state response will have to graduate to definite nuclear scenarios.
There is a definite sickening feeling dusting off these old terms again in being a Russian expert in attempting to teach a new generation the vocabulary of what it is like dealing with the bear as Crazy Ivan is like the brown bear in one never knows in what mood they will wake up swatting someone around, running for the woods or coming hell for leather in a charge.
The Black Sea Fleet is out in the pond and the Northern Fleet is testing the Arctic waters on the American side of the sphere.
This is not an alarm, but someone in the White House, the DOD and the war college had better not miss those nuclear submarines as they mean something.
agtG
