In assessment, the problem with Vladamir Putin is Russia is blinking. Blinking in the sense of the world jungle of survival of the Darwinist that he has shown Russia to be a growling tiger which is backing away slowly.
Russia blinked when it did nothing to stop Georgian troops flown in on American planes.
Russia blinked when it quite ineptly let the story start that Americans were rearming Georgia via humanitarian flights and ships. (It does not make any difference who rearmed Georgia. What makes the problem for Russia is they confirmed it, put out a story of Ukrainian vehicles inside Georgian bases rearming Georgia and responded by seizing American Humvees.
Keep the focus on Georgia and stop creating complicated issues which only highlight how Russia is blinking.)
Russia has now placed it's ships beside NATO ships. That is blinking as it does nothing but show Russia will do nothing.
Russia has now initiated a scenario of declaring war on the Ukraine over Sevastopol, declared nuclear war on Poland and the Czech Republic and is currently allowing it's minister to NATO, Dimitry Rogozin, to howl at the moon about war with NATO, if this happens, if that happens, if that might happen.
Nations howl when they are frightened and can not do a thing about the situation. That is blinking and it sends the message of castration.
It was pointed out on this blog that Vladamir Putin was not so much interested in South Ossetia, but the immense problem his troops have not won a war of any sort in the past 50 years.
The Russian military has no morale in their conscripts. They had immense problems with a rag tag force of whoever was in Georgia.
The main reason Mr. Putin was allowing his troops to blow up Georgia for days afterwards looking like a bully was an attempt to instill in his military of the Caucasus a sense of winning for morale boost.
This is what every power around the world is witnessing and assessing that Russia is a frightened state and is blinking.
This has gotten so bad now in cowardice that Mr. Putin has backed away from the entire scenario and he is letting his underlings rant on in threats while he is remaining silent so not to tarnish his image and allow Medeved and company be scapegoats.
Communist China has watched all of this intently and their PLA has assessed the above like all other nations have. Their absolute slap at Putin in not backing him on South Ossetia comes from an afterglow of the Peking games where China tarted it up and likes being the pretty girl. China is not going to endanger that and does not want it's own South Ossetia.
The PLA at the moment is looking at this and reassessing the entire Putin Manifesto which had China dying against America for Alaskan oil and as a way to crop their people.
The PLA now is looking at the option of simply moving more of it's people into Siberia and west into Russia and by squatter's rights taking land and leveraging resources.
The Chicoms have never liked the Russian Bolsheviks and beheld them as pretenders to the communist throne. They now see a weak Russian military, a Putin who is blinking, a Putin who had played this game quite well, but is now squandering all, and now, a Chinese opportunity to supplant Russia and literally be thee only Asian power in the next decade.
None of this is to say Russia is not a formidable force, because she is. Right now she could sweep across Europe and the Europeans could not stop her.
What keeps Russia from doing so is she would have 300 million armed white terrorists chewing their occupational military up and 1.2 billion Chinese on their flank with 20 million furious Muslim soldiers with nuclear weapons they assisted in providing them on their center.
Russia in wanting to make an example of Georgia, was led into Georgia, and the Europeans and American press are making field day of propaganda out of Mr. Putin's miscalculations.
For those who thought the Bush people and the Brzezinski people did not think beyond missiles in Poland, right now it is proof they knew Russia would respond with bombers to Cuba which is a over reach non win for them with Chavez militarizing Venezuela with Russian warships, and, in striking Georgia and threatening the world, NATO is now seen as the Frigates of Freedom facing a belligerent Russia.
Russia is growling loudly and if Russia makes a huge mistake in striking another absolutely worthless target like South Ossetia she is going to have a major catastrophe on her hands being implemented against her by China.
As predicted, Russia already stated she caught Georgians infiltrating into Russia with sabotage plans. The Israelis are not going to stand around waiting for Russia to put ships into Damascus. Their agents are already putting operations into place. Other nations like Ukraine and the Baltic states will be supporting Chechnya and Georgian efforts.
This is the war Russia will bleed from and collapse from.
Mr. Putin backing away from this has initiated a step to dealing with this internally in Russia to save his political future. He must though find a way with oil and or oil money to bribe his antagonists to stop the coming onslaught of attacks on Russia. Russia can not afford this scenario with China now assessing how it will operate, because it is weighing the fact that moving out 300 million Chinese into Russia for a greater Chinese state is much more sound than a nuclear exchange with America and opening an Alaskan front it will have to expend resources on to defend.
Russia can warn off NATO ships from certain areas, but the fact remains that NATO ships are sitting in the Black Sea, Turkey controls which ships get into the Black Sea and Turkey is NATO.
Russia by calling attention to situations it can do nothing about, but yell, only increases it's appearance of weakness.
Building a military base in South Ossetia has no purpose. It is cut off from Russia by the Caucasus Mountains and in a war would die immediately. These are the types of stories Vladamir Putin has not bothered to shut down and the reason they matter is, because when Russia does not build this base it will appear it is blinking again.
For the sake of the world, Russia must stop doing this, because nations are seeing this and smaller nations are then more willing to test the Bolsheviks like Georgia did to it's advantage.
I will never understand the egomania of people who become leaders. Russia was pouring in money buying up the Balkan properties and neighboring Warsaw Pac states upsetting those peoples.
If Russia simply would have instead focused upon pouring in resources into the Baltic states, Georgia and the Ukraine making them addicted to oil wealth, it could have created trading partners, built it's infrastructure and had a booming economy beyond oil.
Then it could have offered trading partners it's own NATO or EU and subtly garnered these states into a new Soviet.
Instead, Mr. Putin built nuclear bomb proof cities, built a nuclear arsenal and bribed his citizens to be happy as Russia falls apart. That gets you elected in the short term, but does nothing to build an enduring Russia.
Currently, every nation outside idiot Belorussia and these pimple states of Ossetia are against Russia worse than they were against George Bush in the aftermath of Iraq. Russia could take Europe, but it can not hold Europe. So what is the purpose of taking South Ossetia and loosing the world?
Russia in 4 weeks has now isolated herself and turned the Chinese into a contemplating nation wondering if it can cut it's own deal with the west for a big bite of Russian soil.
None of this is good for the world no more than the Bolshevik Manifesto or the Chicom Manifesto was good for the world as it only strengthens the globalists like Mr. Brzezinski in his agenda for a greater central European Empire reborn.
Russia as in Mr. Putin must find a way to save face and a way to bribe his adversaries in some way to appease Zbigniew Brzezinski and Nathaniel Rothschild or he is going to have a war Russia will loose on his hands.
One would suggest that Mr. Putin might blame Georgia on the South Ossetians and an over reaction by a few of his Generals who can retire early. In return, Russia "gets" North Ossetia and Georgia "gets" South Ossetia.
Mr. Putin can then tell NATO quietly, he will not invade any more states if NATO promises not to expand into Georgia and Ukraine for 20 years.
Mr. Putin can then offer a cash settlement for what Russia blew up in Georgia to appease the propaganda press.
Mr. Putin can dump a load of oil into the Israeli state in exchange for the ability to dock in Syria providing no more advanced missiles to Syria.
Mr. Putin can offer the Europeans oil from Russia in exchange for Russian currency deposits into their banks as that is what the Europeans want in the first and last place.
This scenario provides Russia with expanded finance in trade. Secures what it can hold and defuses it's major antagonists who are willing to listen to Mr. Brzezinksi now.
The entire purpose should be in Russia's mind to live to live another day, instead of threatening in public and escalating the problem on issues it should shut up about.
Abraham Lincoln said, "One war at a time". Mr. Putin in his silence seems to have figured out that lesson. He now needs to fix it before communist China decides to invade the Russian east for it's own peoples rights living there.
War costs more money than peaceful bribes. Mr. Putin needs to hire a western script writer and tell his people to shut up and start bribing the antagonists so his real problems do not start an expensive war.
agtG
